There’s a wave of optimism building across global M&A markets in 2025—and Canada is very much part of the momentum.
As an M&A advisor working closely with mid-market business owners and investors, I’m seeing firsthand how both global tailwinds and domestic developments are shaping what looks to be a dynamic year for dealmaking. Here are a few key trends we’re tracking at Portage:
The Global Picture
Globally, M&A activity is being buoyed by a more favorable financial climate. Interest rates are beginning to ease, particularly in the U.S. and parts of Europe, which is restoring confidence and improving access to capital. The Fed’s recent rate cuts have lowered the cost of borrowing, making strategic acquisitions more attractive for both corporate buyers and private equity.
Another major driver? Technology and AI. We’re seeing a surge in deals aimed at boosting digital capabilities, especially across sectors like infrastructure, industrials, and healthcare. The competitive advantage is increasingly tied to how quickly companies can adapt and integrate AI—and acquisitions are proving to be a fast track.
Meanwhile, the UK private equity market is bouncing back. After a quieter period, 2024 saw £63 billion in PE deals—nearly reaching record levels again. This signals renewed confidence in cross-border investing and global deal flow.
What’s Happening in Canada
In Canada, the spotlight is on the mid-market. Transactions in the $10 million to $500 million range are expected to dominate the landscape in 2025. With valuations remaining stable and some lingering political and economic uncertainty, many business owners are viewing this as an opportune time to explore exit options or growth through acquisition.
The energy sector is also regaining momentum. Waterous Energy recently raised close to $1 billion to consolidate smaller oil and gas players in Western Canada—an aggressive roll-up strategy that reflects broader trends toward consolidation in mature sectors.
On the regulatory front, Ottawa is tightening foreign investment rules to prevent what it calls “predatory” takeovers in sensitive industries. This could have implications for cross-border deals, especially in sectors tied to national security or critical infrastructure, and is likely to increase the scrutiny on foreign buyers during due diligence.
Looking Ahead
At Portage M&A Advisory, we know 2025 is off to an uncertain start—tariffs are rising, political leadership is in flux, and global markets remain unpredictable. But despite the noise, the Canadian lower middle market is showing signs of strength.
In times like these, some sectors pull back while others attract outsized demand. With more capital chasing fewer quality opportunities, well-positioned businesses stand to benefit. For owners considering a sale—or buyers looking for smart, strategic moves—now may be the right time to act.
We help clients navigate complexity with clarity. If you’re exploring your options, we’re here to guide the way.
Jim Friesen, MBA, CPA, CM&AA
Founder | Partner
